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True. That's why it's hard. We don't know who's wrong until we get there.

I'd revise that. It depends on the context. Is it a discussion of known fact or a discussion of various possible not-yet-known outcomes? With known fact, can say before you get there. And a lot of discussions would tend to converge on known fact, rather than not-yet-known outcomes. It's only the truly groundbreaking stuff that we don't know. And if we're restricting the subject to startups, how many startups in the world are truly groundbreaking?

OK, maybe you can still throw out the argument that we don't know. But I can't do that confidently.

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