> at the individual level, a single layperson choosing not to have kids won't have any significant affect on overpopulation.

Sorry, that's irrational. The only choices are individual ones -- governments can't really control what individuals do. Look at China's failed one-child policy.

Overpopulation results from billions of people rationalizing that their individual choice can't possibly matter.

> we can't rely on individual convictions as the solution to our collective problems.

What? Did I hear you right? Don't you understand that democracy is designed to honor and respect individual choices? The collective problem of overpopulation results from many individual choices to have children.

> the majority of the solution will have to come from elsewhere.

Healthy, non-dictatorial governments wait for the people to tell them what values to reflect and enforce. By contrast, dictators rely on the kind of person who says, "Let the experts solve these problems, individuals don't count."

On the positive side, education works wonders. Many studies show that educated women have smaller families.