I don't think you're wrong on any particular point.
But all of this is what makes Bitcoin irrelevant to the global financial system.
A currency can't be used for daily purchases if you have to account for cyclical periods where you just shouldn't spend them!
Couple this with the fact that this time enough of the mainstream media is paying attention, and Bitcoin won't recover. I'd bet a Bitcoin that this is the highest valuation of Bitcoin over its career as a highly interesting experiment in economics.
I'm not going to buy a Bitcoin. I'll just go into tremendous debt if I lose, and if I win, well, you can just keep it ;)
Oh, and I wouldn't take today's high. I'm talking about this current hump. After it falls below 100, it won't make it back up to 100, is the bet I'd make.
Comments
I don't think you're wrong on any particular point.
But all of this is what makes Bitcoin irrelevant to the global financial system.
A currency can't be used for daily purchases if you have to account for cyclical periods where you just shouldn't spend them!
Couple this with the fact that this time enough of the mainstream media is paying attention, and Bitcoin won't recover. I'd bet a Bitcoin that this is the highest valuation of Bitcoin over its career as a highly interesting experiment in economics.
What are your terms on that bet?
My take on it is that it's a mistake to think it's a currency. It has a lot more in common with gold, but without the heavy lifting.
If it's not a currency it shouldn't act like one.
My terms are: if I win, you pay me a (worthless) Bitcoin. If you win, I owe you a stupid amount of money.
It's meant to indicate my disregard for Bitcoin's chances of success.
I'll take that bet. Let's say, 2018-04-04 as the date, and use today's high of $147 USD as the crossover point.
If I lose, I owe you a BitCoin. If I win, you owe me one. Feel free to pre-purchase that coin. I'll stick a reminder in my calendar.
I'm not going to buy a Bitcoin. I'll just go into tremendous debt if I lose, and if I win, well, you can just keep it ;)
Oh, and I wouldn't take today's high. I'm talking about this current hump. After it falls below 100, it won't make it back up to 100, is the bet I'd make.