33/1 in the 2060s for "first cloned human" seems conservative, unless it's merely because of current laws. There was a failed attempt in 2004 with a cloned embryo but it doesn't seem as if the process and technology is particularly beyond reach. I'd be more surprised if we don't have Star Trek-style transporters by the 2060s.
Similarly conservative, I think, is that it will be the year 2150 before a human lives to 150. Considering the pace of advancement in the fields of genetics, pharmaceuticals, and organ-replacement, I would expect this much sooner.
Maybe the thinking there is someone who's 150 in 2150 would have been born in 2000 and even with advances in genetics, maybe it's only likely to work if the technology reaches someone currently in the prime of life.
(That is, if we have the means in 2050, it might simply not work on a then 100 year old.)
I agree. It's ethics, not science, that will stop us from cloning people. If society and government actually wanted to clone people there wouldn't be many barriers in the way.
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33/1 in the 2060s for "first cloned human" seems conservative, unless it's merely because of current laws. There was a failed attempt in 2004 with a cloned embryo but it doesn't seem as if the process and technology is particularly beyond reach. I'd be more surprised if we don't have Star Trek-style transporters by the 2060s.
Similarly conservative, I think, is that it will be the year 2150 before a human lives to 150. Considering the pace of advancement in the fields of genetics, pharmaceuticals, and organ-replacement, I would expect this much sooner.
Maybe the thinking there is someone who's 150 in 2150 would have been born in 2000 and even with advances in genetics, maybe it's only likely to work if the technology reaches someone currently in the prime of life.
(That is, if we have the means in 2050, it might simply not work on a then 100 year old.)
I agree. It's ethics, not science, that will stop us from cloning people. If society and government actually wanted to clone people there wouldn't be many barriers in the way.