Numbers are always trustworthy if they're accurate. You just need to right context to interpret them in. These numbers are straight from Google Analytics, and you are correct that one was a direct link and the other was via TC. I say this in the article.
This is a real world scenario. Many people ask how much traffic we got from being on TechCrunch. This is just data, take it as you want. I do my best to explain the main caveats, including the one you pointed out. There are many.
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Your HN post[0] led to a blog post: http://www.learndot.com/findings/how-to-name-your-startup/
Your TechCrunch post[1] led directly to your homepage.
With that in mind, we can't trust these numbers at all.
[0]: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4779410
[1]: http://techcrunch.com/2012/11/13/learndot-launches-its-learn...
Numbers are always trustworthy if they're accurate. You just need to right context to interpret them in. These numbers are straight from Google Analytics, and you are correct that one was a direct link and the other was via TC. I say this in the article.
This is a real world scenario. Many people ask how much traffic we got from being on TechCrunch. This is just data, take it as you want. I do my best to explain the main caveats, including the one you pointed out. There are many.
They're untrustworthy to answer the question "TechCrunch vs. Hacker News: Which is a better front page to launch your startup?"
Having said that, HN is definitely the best site to get your TC vs HN blog post to the front page