On commercial qualities, there are business plan competitions that MBAs do a ton - here's a post from someone who thinks they are useless:

http://steveblank.com/2010/05/17/no-one-wins-in-business-pla...

After a decade of development I am still completely off when estimating the work required for any particular task or project. Most timelines are still 2-3x as long as originally estimated.

Choosing ideas seems more art than science right now. I'd love to have a better way.