I don't see how this scheme can scale simply for the reason that there's no built in balancer. What's to stop shardN from becoming overwhelmed when all the power users end up there, while shardN-1 has no activity?
In practice it's going to be very rare that you'll overwhelm a single shard and adding an extra layer to point to where people actually are is quite simple and fast. You can use a simple cache key (read-through cache of course) that, if it exists means the user is on a specific shard, overriding the default algorithmic pick.
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I don't see how this scheme can scale simply for the reason that there's no built in balancer. What's to stop shardN from becoming overwhelmed when all the power users end up there, while shardN-1 has no activity?
Edge-Case YAGNI. Have lots of shards, put multiple shards on each machine, shuffle the shards around as necessary. Rinse. Repeat.
flickr deals with that problem by manually moving power users if necessary. They have a tool that lets them do that. See: http://highscalability.com/how-flickr-handles-moving-you-ano...
In practice it's going to be very rare that you'll overwhelm a single shard and adding an extra layer to point to where people actually are is quite simple and fast. You can use a simple cache key (read-through cache of course) that, if it exists means the user is on a specific shard, overriding the default algorithmic pick.