From what I'm experiencing, we have recursive self improvement that can find local maxima, I'm not seeing really strong evidence of unguided RSI that finds the true optimal.
Doesn’t matter if there’s a rechable local maximum that happens to be comfortably beyond human level. Indeed it would be very surprising if a thing capable of RSI just happened to get stuck at human level or slightly above or below, even though its constraints are entirely different from those evolution had to work with when it created us!
We already know why most things happen. But beat around the bush. That is the problem. We don't care.
When a severe security bug crops up, one postmortem tells where we messed up. Someone somewhere didn't do his job. Maybe they prioritised speed, money or due to management issue. But we know why.
When an accident happens (Motorvehicles or otherwise), most of the time, if anyone in the chain of events did their job, it could've been avoided. But we ignored the policies, standards and laws set in place to avoid just that. There can't be a better example than Boeing for this.
When it comes to natural disasters, we know how to fix most of it. But we as human race just don't want to.
Hell, we knew how to freakin avoid Covid which came out of the blue. 6ft apart, wash hands and mask. We couldn't agree to that to keep us ALIVE!
IMO, we don't want new technologies, new innovations, new laws in most cases. We just needs to apply what we know already - PROPERLY! But that ain't fancy.
All I could remember is that tweet where musk has a $2M reward for the invention of a carbon capture device or something around those lines. And someone replied to that tweet saying, it's trees. Trees do this.
Another big one is climate change. Ask the ASI how to solve that, and it's just going to say make a huge push for more renewables like solar, and strongly disincentivize GHG emissions. We already knew we had to do that. But the people in charge of the economy don't wanna.
Exactly. It's not about us NOT having the knowledge, understanding or capability to solve the issues that we have. We just don't want to do the right thing. That doesn't get fixed even if we invent time machines.
What local maxima are you seeing? That would imply that progress has stalled, which doesn't appear to be the case where I'm looking.
Also, RSI is obviously guided. If only guided by "it's not giving results so we'll try something else". To require that RSI happens in a black box for it to count would be arbitrary, and also not how anyone is going to do it.
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From what I'm experiencing, we have recursive self improvement that can find local maxima, I'm not seeing really strong evidence of unguided RSI that finds the true optimal.
Doesn’t matter if there’s a rechable local maximum that happens to be comfortably beyond human level. Indeed it would be very surprising if a thing capable of RSI just happened to get stuck at human level or slightly above or below, even though its constraints are entirely different from those evolution had to work with when it created us!
You don't expect to find the global maximum. It will just always be there as an elusive target.
I doubt the human brain is at global maximum.
I doubt that any algorithms would be able to find a global maximum in such a large multidimensional non-convex space
Would the loss at the global maxima be much lower that the loss at most local maxima?
True optimal what? Optimal intelligence? What would that be?
Optimal intelligence would know.
Better at predicting real world consequences from priors than we are :)
We already know why most things happen. But beat around the bush. That is the problem. We don't care.
When a severe security bug crops up, one postmortem tells where we messed up. Someone somewhere didn't do his job. Maybe they prioritised speed, money or due to management issue. But we know why.
When an accident happens (Motorvehicles or otherwise), most of the time, if anyone in the chain of events did their job, it could've been avoided. But we ignored the policies, standards and laws set in place to avoid just that. There can't be a better example than Boeing for this.
When it comes to natural disasters, we know how to fix most of it. But we as human race just don't want to.
Hell, we knew how to freakin avoid Covid which came out of the blue. 6ft apart, wash hands and mask. We couldn't agree to that to keep us ALIVE!
IMO, we don't want new technologies, new innovations, new laws in most cases. We just needs to apply what we know already - PROPERLY! But that ain't fancy.
All I could remember is that tweet where musk has a $2M reward for the invention of a carbon capture device or something around those lines. And someone replied to that tweet saying, it's trees. Trees do this.
Another big one is climate change. Ask the ASI how to solve that, and it's just going to say make a huge push for more renewables like solar, and strongly disincentivize GHG emissions. We already knew we had to do that. But the people in charge of the economy don't wanna.
Exactly. It's not about us NOT having the knowledge, understanding or capability to solve the issues that we have. We just don't want to do the right thing. That doesn't get fixed even if we invent time machines.
Elon Musk, obviously
What local maxima are you seeing? That would imply that progress has stalled, which doesn't appear to be the case where I'm looking.
Also, RSI is obviously guided. If only guided by "it's not giving results so we'll try something else". To require that RSI happens in a black box for it to count would be arbitrary, and also not how anyone is going to do it.
There is no publicly known reference example of RSI, we have no idea how it works or what it does to the trajectory of progress?