Anyway, I have been running my own trading experiment and so far it has lost a bit of money. That being said I have not tried to optimise anything - just let it do whatever it wants. The losses are small and it might be able to recover later this year. Who knows.
I am thinking to output all the chat logs to HF as well for research.
You can run your own trading agents that communicate over a message buss in your own terms by downloading the CBK platform and running it locally with your own models. I have also shared my trading blueprint if you want to give it a go. https://chatbotkit.com/hub/blueprints/trader
Yeah, I agree with this. There is no point in open sourcing anything that works, in the finance world.
I actually have a profitable trading agent, and hell no I will not open source it. It also looks nothing like this. For one this bot is ingesting a shitton of noisy sources that have almost no signal and using them naively.
It would be more interesting to compare trading agents with index tracking ETFs. The better version of an ETF could maybe be a model where you zoom in on the companies and add/remove to your portfolio on the company related news, but keeping a broader portfolio.
Maybe agentic trading still performs worse than ETFs. But alternatively, if it were meaningfully better then it would be okay to opensource, similarly how ETFs are publishing their portfolios.
When I started working no the trading agent I mentioned above I wanted to see if it can be just a better investor over the long run. The intention was not to do high-frequency trading. As you can see most of the days it is not taking any actions. The losses where down to mistakenly setting the stop losses too close to the top. If it wasn't so careful it might have made some money tbf.
My gut feeling is that AI agents will be able to manage a long-term portfolio much better than a human. Though it is just a gut feeling.
Lmao, you llm people have some crazy delusions. You realize markets are zero sum, and if you're using a public model that everyone else also has access too, you llm psychos will destory eachothers "agentic" edge (not that there ever was one). Not to mention all the other obvious flaws with llms, lime having an effective memory of ~200k words and no ability to judge whats actually going on in the real world.
Markets are only zero-sum in any given trade. Allocating capital to assets with higher growth rates (on the marginal dollar) creates value in the long run.
So, very simply, if AI can actually do better at picking a better long-term winner then it will increase growth.
Yeah and you probably have to. An ETF easily has >1000 different stocks and even being weighted. So it has a completely different risk appetite by being so averaged.
But ETFs do have to follow particular rules defined by their product description. So it is still interesting to benchmark against.
You really have no idea what you are talking about.
I have been running an intermittent experiment with a multi agent "investment firm" for over a year now across model releases.
They certainly can beat indexes, BUT.. the model families have some biases that you have to design around. The stop loss that bit the parent is certainly one. The models like to create rules. Often rules, one of those is making all kinds of exit conditions.
Another big one from my experience is the bias to inaction in a scenario with risk. This means a model without structure around it will bias to keeping too much cash.
This would be nice if it was supported by some hard data. But even if it was, one year is too short of a timeline to make any kind of reasonable conclusions about its efficacy.
Buying stock based on coin flips can beat indexes short term too, that does not mean it is a better strategy or that it works over the long term.
There must be some room for some anti-llm agent that can profit from specific behaviors of these models when deployed against actual markets.
The idea that somebody here came up with idea that all professional algo traders didn't explore to the last penny a year if not more ahead of others is funny... but its not my money adding liquidity to the markets.
Come to me when you have 500 trades and can beat Vangaurd's-VOO over a multi year time frame. Ill bet my entire networth and all future earnings for the rest of my life that your bot doesnt beat it. Your llm induced Dunning Kruger is going to get you in trouble one of these days I promise.
Look, it isn't fool proof and it is dangerous. With the current models you need to understand both markets and model biases and dynamics.
However with that said they are a huge multiplier and can tirelessly analyze the market for you.
They certainly can be used to beat sp 500 quite easily, but again that requires some understanding of risk on your part because the models will do what you ask them. If you go all in on options or something without clear risk management you will lose your ass.
The "blog" says that it's just holding cash or am I misunderstanding something? Judging by the "buying power" number, you allow it to use 4x leverage against the cash it has? That seems dangerous unless you are fine with losing 380k+.
A lot of people don't realize that when a leveraged position goes against you (especially with a regulated broker), you get liquidated once your equity runs out, but you can still owe the shortfall on top of that. And the broker can come after your assets to collect it. So your real exposure here is 380K, not 98K.
That being said, I think the parent AI is using paper money. Though who knows, this is the brave new world of AI.
Comments
If this worked it wouldn't have been open source?
Anyway, I have been running my own trading experiment and so far it has lost a bit of money. That being said I have not tried to optimise anything - just let it do whatever it wants. The losses are small and it might be able to recover later this year. Who knows.
The agent writes a blog about its progress here https://trades.chatbotkit.space/
I am thinking to output all the chat logs to HF as well for research.
You can run your own trading agents that communicate over a message buss in your own terms by downloading the CBK platform and running it locally with your own models. I have also shared my trading blueprint if you want to give it a go. https://chatbotkit.com/hub/blueprints/trader
Yeah, I agree with this. There is no point in open sourcing anything that works, in the finance world.
I actually have a profitable trading agent, and hell no I will not open source it. It also looks nothing like this. For one this bot is ingesting a shitton of noisy sources that have almost no signal and using them naively.
It would be more interesting to compare trading agents with index tracking ETFs. The better version of an ETF could maybe be a model where you zoom in on the companies and add/remove to your portfolio on the company related news, but keeping a broader portfolio.
Maybe agentic trading still performs worse than ETFs. But alternatively, if it were meaningfully better then it would be okay to opensource, similarly how ETFs are publishing their portfolios.
I think this might work.
When I started working no the trading agent I mentioned above I wanted to see if it can be just a better investor over the long run. The intention was not to do high-frequency trading. As you can see most of the days it is not taking any actions. The losses where down to mistakenly setting the stop losses too close to the top. If it wasn't so careful it might have made some money tbf.
My gut feeling is that AI agents will be able to manage a long-term portfolio much better than a human. Though it is just a gut feeling.
Lmao, you llm people have some crazy delusions. You realize markets are zero sum, and if you're using a public model that everyone else also has access too, you llm psychos will destory eachothers "agentic" edge (not that there ever was one). Not to mention all the other obvious flaws with llms, lime having an effective memory of ~200k words and no ability to judge whats actually going on in the real world.
Markets are only zero-sum in any given trade. Allocating capital to assets with higher growth rates (on the marginal dollar) creates value in the long run.
So, very simply, if AI can actually do better at picking a better long-term winner then it will increase growth.
The 'edge' is holding the investments over long periods of times. Agents are merely automating the portfolio managing part for lower costs.
Sure, but why would the organizations managing ETFs employ the same low cost agents + their own insights and provide a better return.
Yeah and you probably have to. An ETF easily has >1000 different stocks and even being weighted. So it has a completely different risk appetite by being so averaged.
But ETFs do have to follow particular rules defined by their product description. So it is still interesting to benchmark against.
You really have no idea what you are talking about.
I have been running an intermittent experiment with a multi agent "investment firm" for over a year now across model releases.
They certainly can beat indexes, BUT.. the model families have some biases that you have to design around. The stop loss that bit the parent is certainly one. The models like to create rules. Often rules, one of those is making all kinds of exit conditions.
Another big one from my experience is the bias to inaction in a scenario with risk. This means a model without structure around it will bias to keeping too much cash.
This would be nice if it was supported by some hard data. But even if it was, one year is too short of a timeline to make any kind of reasonable conclusions about its efficacy.
Buying stock based on coin flips can beat indexes short term too, that does not mean it is a better strategy or that it works over the long term.
There must be some room for some anti-llm agent that can profit from specific behaviors of these models when deployed against actual markets.
The idea that somebody here came up with idea that all professional algo traders didn't explore to the last penny a year if not more ahead of others is funny... but its not my money adding liquidity to the markets.
Is it opensource?
"just trust me bro"
Come to me when you have 500 trades and can beat Vangaurd's-VOO over a multi year time frame. Ill bet my entire networth and all future earnings for the rest of my life that your bot doesnt beat it. Your llm induced Dunning Kruger is going to get you in trouble one of these days I promise.
Look, it isn't fool proof and it is dangerous. With the current models you need to understand both markets and model biases and dynamics.
However with that said they are a huge multiplier and can tirelessly analyze the market for you.
They certainly can be used to beat sp 500 quite easily, but again that requires some understanding of risk on your part because the models will do what you ask them. If you go all in on options or something without clear risk management you will lose your ass.
The issue at stake is that financial markets are order-2 chaotic system, i.e. acting on them can change their outcome.
Put simply, if you open source your magic recipe, the behavioral change will affect the prices and you recipe will not work anymore.
The "blog" says that it's just holding cash or am I misunderstanding something? Judging by the "buying power" number, you allow it to use 4x leverage against the cash it has? That seems dangerous unless you are fine with losing 380k+.
A lot of people don't realize that when a leveraged position goes against you (especially with a regulated broker), you get liquidated once your equity runs out, but you can still owe the shortfall on top of that. And the broker can come after your assets to collect it. So your real exposure here is 380K, not 98K.
That being said, I think the parent AI is using paper money. Though who knows, this is the brave new world of AI.
Am I reading these logs correctly? You gave an agent 100k!? Very bold, hopefully it does turn things around.
I had done a small experiment with 100$, but would be hesitant on more than that. I suppose if it's money you're willing to lose.
The title is 'Paper trades' so it's very likely fictional money.
Paper trades are more lenient afaik? You won't run into actual transaction problems particularly when market fluctuates by the milliseconds.
If you like building but have no capital you might release something like this that works.
just seems to have trump tweets and war. surely those are nt the only market movers?