Doomers think I'm a ridiculous optimist, people who think "doomer" is a slur think I'm a ridiculous pessimist.
For comparison, if you take the general form of the Carter (et al) Doomsday argument, there'd be a 33% or so chance of global thermonuclear war in the same period even without AI:
How "hopeful" that is, is up to you. I mean, unless AI's sufficiently advanced technology (AKA magic) turns out to be able to solve entropy as well as aging, we're all doomed eventually, it's just when, and 10% chance over 40 years isn't a risk I worry about in itself.
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Yup. If "near term" is "about half a lifetime".
Doomers think I'm a ridiculous optimist, people who think "doomer" is a slur think I'm a ridiculous pessimist.
For comparison, if you take the general form of the Carter (et al) Doomsday argument, there'd be a 33% or so chance of global thermonuclear war in the same period even without AI:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_argument
How "hopeful" that is, is up to you. I mean, unless AI's sufficiently advanced technology (AKA magic) turns out to be able to solve entropy as well as aging, we're all doomed eventually, it's just when, and 10% chance over 40 years isn't a risk I worry about in itself.
Cringe