Everyone wants to argue crypto when my point was precisely the opposite (to wit: "Two decades after the factoring freakout, RSA is fine, go figure"), but whatever. I'll retract that when they break it. But the pace has been slowing down, not speeding up. Getting from RSA-250 to -260 was six years. That's not going to get us there before I kick it, at least.
If you want to pin me down on something slightly more formal: DRAM density scaling kinda stopped a few years back, systems aren't getting any bigger (much to Sam Altman's public dismay), and there is a superlinear matrix size requirement in factorization techniques that AFAIK no one knows how to fix. We can get the cycles to do it, but not the space.
Probably. Maybe not! But even so, it will remain cheaper to steal my secrets with the proverbial $5 wrench. RSA? It was fine.
The last few jumps between 2x0 were 3 years, 2 years, 1 year, 1 year, and 6 years.
I don't think you can extrapolate that into "slowing down". It wouldn't even be surprising if the next five jumps averaged 2 years each and RSA-1024 was cracked in a decade.
I'm sure RAM is an issue but I don't expect it to be a hard wall.
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Everyone wants to argue crypto when my point was precisely the opposite (to wit: "Two decades after the factoring freakout, RSA is fine, go figure"), but whatever. I'll retract that when they break it. But the pace has been slowing down, not speeding up. Getting from RSA-250 to -260 was six years. That's not going to get us there before I kick it, at least.
If you want to pin me down on something slightly more formal: DRAM density scaling kinda stopped a few years back, systems aren't getting any bigger (much to Sam Altman's public dismay), and there is a superlinear matrix size requirement in factorization techniques that AFAIK no one knows how to fix. We can get the cycles to do it, but not the space.
Probably. Maybe not! But even so, it will remain cheaper to steal my secrets with the proverbial $5 wrench. RSA? It was fine.
The last few jumps between 2x0 were 3 years, 2 years, 1 year, 1 year, and 6 years.
I don't think you can extrapolate that into "slowing down". It wouldn't even be surprising if the next five jumps averaged 2 years each and RSA-1024 was cracked in a decade.
I'm sure RAM is an issue but I don't expect it to be a hard wall.