It hasn’t climbed the complexity bar for hard software engineering yet, fable still can’t build a fully functioning C Compiler, I think in the long horizon eval it can sometimes build a C pre-processor (not deterministic) given all the tests and a spec. And given the tests is a big deal, humans actually write the tests on their own while developing btw. Anthropics marketing stunt C compiler doesn’t count (that one didn’t even type check).

Now the thing to claim “a better coder than humans”, is you can’t just stop at making a production grade C Compiler, you then also need to make the leap to make something new that is a definite improvement over everything that existed before it. This is an also a question of taste not just implementation chops. Think Zigs cross platform C Compiler, Rusts memory safety opinionated compiler and more.

The day AI can do both, implement a complex production grade project, and make a conceptual actual improvement upon SOTA is the day I’ll agree AI has become better than humans at coding. I’ve underestimated AI in the past, maybe with 10T of compute they’ll get there, maybe they won’t , we’ll know in the coming years