I agree with your reasoning that coding is a solved problem, or that it very soon will be.
While that has profound implications for the profession, I don't think it kills it outright—rather, it radically shifts the nature of the job.
Some have said that shift is analogous to leadership, creative direction.
Eventually we'll see models that excel at architecture, owing to extensive training on human prompts—harvesting both judgement and creativity.
Meanwhile with the underlying software infrastructure supporting it all, duplication of work is inevitable. On top of that, the feeling everything's cheap slop, nothing has meaning anymore.
It certainly doesn't paint a rosy picture. Is the whole thing a race to the bottom? Maybe.
So, here's my counterpoint:
For most, craftsmanship will no longer live in code going forward. Instead, it will live somewhere else. Where? I'm not entirely sure, but I strongly suspect it will still be part of the profession.
Right now, I’ll be very honest: it feels like a race to the bottom, except for the hardcore engineers working on genuinely difficult problems.
Only a small number of people will get the chance to work at that level as the field changes. I think there will be a radical shift from here.
Altman and Dario know this well. That is probably why the tone has changed from “engineering will disappear” to “engineering will change.” But I think we have already reached the inflection point where a large part of the work is getting automated.
Craftsmanship has already started moving somewhere else. Where exactly it moves depends on the kind of work, and I do not think everyone will figure out what the new end goal is.
Comments
I agree with your reasoning that coding is a solved problem, or that it very soon will be.
While that has profound implications for the profession, I don't think it kills it outright—rather, it radically shifts the nature of the job.
Some have said that shift is analogous to leadership, creative direction.
Eventually we'll see models that excel at architecture, owing to extensive training on human prompts—harvesting both judgement and creativity.
Meanwhile with the underlying software infrastructure supporting it all, duplication of work is inevitable. On top of that, the feeling everything's cheap slop, nothing has meaning anymore.
It certainly doesn't paint a rosy picture. Is the whole thing a race to the bottom? Maybe.
So, here's my counterpoint:
For most, craftsmanship will no longer live in code going forward. Instead, it will live somewhere else. Where? I'm not entirely sure, but I strongly suspect it will still be part of the profession.
Right now, I’ll be very honest: it feels like a race to the bottom, except for the hardcore engineers working on genuinely difficult problems.
Only a small number of people will get the chance to work at that level as the field changes. I think there will be a radical shift from here.
Altman and Dario know this well. That is probably why the tone has changed from “engineering will disappear” to “engineering will change.” But I think we have already reached the inflection point where a large part of the work is getting automated.
Craftsmanship has already started moving somewhere else. Where exactly it moves depends on the kind of work, and I do not think everyone will figure out what the new end goal is.