I think within 12 months we’re going to see a frontier (inc open models) that’s so good at almost all human-directed tasks that which model you use just won’t matter. Only differences that remain will be in deep research or very long-range tasks.
Someone else having been too early on a prediction has little bearing on my prediction. A year ago almost nobody was using open models as daily drivers, today they are. When I run out of Fable and Sol credits in a week, I switch to GLM5.3, and it's not quite there, but it's good enough for productive work.
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I think within 12 months we’re going to see a frontier (inc open models) that’s so good at almost all human-directed tasks that which model you use just won’t matter. Only differences that remain will be in deep research or very long-range tasks.
People were saying this last year, and they’ll be saying the exact same thing next year. The goalpost keeps moving.
It‘s already happening, people are using cheaper models because they are good enough
Someone else having been too early on a prediction has little bearing on my prediction. A year ago almost nobody was using open models as daily drivers, today they are. When I run out of Fable and Sol credits in a week, I switch to GLM5.3, and it's not quite there, but it's good enough for productive work.