Taleb's emphasis in his latest book is on avoiding the naive attempt to predict the unpredictable. Instead, focus on identifying and making things "Antifragile" so that they are resistant to (or even benefit from) events that would otherwise be destructive. With that in mind, risk management becomes much less about guessing about the future. Instead, the focus is to identify the fragile (that which is highly susceptible to disruption) and take steps to make it antifragile.

http://www.amazon.com/Antifragile-Things-That-Gain-Disorder/...

It is an enjoyable read so far...