Case 3: nothing changes, the people who are currently getting good at directing LLMs get pretty good at directing LLMs, the people choosing to do things the old way get or remain good at that, the job market adjusts salary expectations for each group according to how useful they turn out to be in the new normal
Case 4: LLMs continue to improve incrementally, the people who are currently getting good at directing LLMs get pretty good at directing LLMs, the people choosing to do things the old way get or remain good at that, the job market adjusts salary expectations for each group according to how useful they are likely to become in the new normal
Case 5: any number of things that you and I haven't foreseen because the future has a habit of completely bucking expectations
And what does LLMs going bust even mean? These are programs that we run, they aren't going anywhere, even when the current AI investment bubble completely implodes. The models, and their impact on programming culture, are here to stay.
Case 6: Tokens become very expensive for some reason and some devs who can't code without LLMs are hostages because can't pay or must learn the old way. Others become partly junk removal beginners because production issues. Less delivery.
Comments
Case 3: nothing changes, the people who are currently getting good at directing LLMs get pretty good at directing LLMs, the people choosing to do things the old way get or remain good at that, the job market adjusts salary expectations for each group according to how useful they turn out to be in the new normal
Case 4: LLMs continue to improve incrementally, the people who are currently getting good at directing LLMs get pretty good at directing LLMs, the people choosing to do things the old way get or remain good at that, the job market adjusts salary expectations for each group according to how useful they are likely to become in the new normal
Case 5: any number of things that you and I haven't foreseen because the future has a habit of completely bucking expectations
And what does LLMs going bust even mean? These are programs that we run, they aren't going anywhere, even when the current AI investment bubble completely implodes. The models, and their impact on programming culture, are here to stay.
Case 6: Tokens become very expensive for some reason and some devs who can't code without LLMs are hostages because can't pay or must learn the old way. Others become partly junk removal beginners because production issues. Less delivery.
Agreed it's a corner case, but still.