"As office building vacancies jeopardize urban fiscal health and downtown vitality, here’s how cities and states are adapting."
The distress over remote work comes not from employers, but from owners of commercial real estate.
Here's a view of that from a lending broker in the commercial real estate sector. [1] The high vacancy rate is all too real, and papering it over with "extend and pretend" lending tricks is mostly over. A lot of loans renew in 2026-2027, and they won't have the near zero interest rates from last time. Vacancy rates are higher than generally reported, because many landlords are making concessions.[2] San Francisco has about a 30% office vacancy rate, by the way.
All this means foreclosures, distressed property, markdowns, and bankruptcies. "A January 2026 Morningstar DBRS analysis, reported by The Wall Street Journal and The Real Deal, found that more than half of the roughly $100 billion of securitized commercial mortgages coming due in 2026 are unlikely to pay off at maturity."
The loud "return to office" pronouncements did not result in an increase in office space in use.
Despite all the noise, remote work has not really decreased much in recent years. "Less than 1/3 of companies requiring fully in-person work in 2026."[3]
Despite all the noise, remote work has not really decreased much in recent years. "Less than 1/3 of companies requiring fully in-person work in 2026."[3]
Remote work is generally being displaced by hybrid. That still requires employees to live in expensive metros and employers to maintain offices with space for everyone. The offices can be a little more austere and the commutes a little worse given that they're only for 2-3 days a week, but everybody's still got to pay for basically the same stuff. Downtown retail, though, is screwed with only 2-3 days of foot traffic to pay the bills.
It is likely we need to see it crash first. I am not in this industry but it does make sense to me that it gets easier after the current owner gets wiped out, banks take possession, value gets marked down, and then money gets spent on the conversion.
With the loan under water or the fear of it going that way it is probably hard to fund additional debt for a multi-year construction effort when no one is sure which way the market will go. Also may mean that they miss out on a govt bailout that could make them whole.
Just a theory on why we haven’t seen much of this.
The key problem with adapting offices into apartments is the lack of natural light in office floor plans. You have a glass skyscraper that has a huge floor surface, but no way to deliver light in the middle of the building. So even if converting it, you’re looking at making very big apartments since they need to hug at least one exterior wall to have any light, and then go toward the middle of the floor plan, whilst getting darker and darker. Essentially you’d be buying a 1-window or 2-window apartment with multiple bedrooms, which is hardly desirable. The problem is that we’ve built office spaces quite differently than residential high-rises, making a conversion into (desirable) apartments sometimes untenable.
Yeah, in my mind it could go one of two ways - huge luxury apartments, or tiny ones with communal amenities in the center, more similar to a dorm.
While the latter may sound ridiculous, one thing I've heard over and over(and over) again from younger people in the area was complaining about paying so much for rent when they're never home, and just needing a place to sleep. I'm not up with zoning or even the feasibility of such a thing, more of a thought experiment.
Agreed, a dorm-like setup with amenities in the middle might work. It’s a whole different economic model and pitch to potential buyers/renters, but it could work.
As long as I have reliable climate control I prefer not having windows or "natural light".
I presently live in a townhouse triplex with like 5 huge windows to the outside world and everyone in my household has them permanently blackout-curtained like nobody's business.. and there is still way too much light getting in each one of them. :(
Perhaps there are vampire-like demographics which could be served by some of the interior-space of such buildings?
Plus, depending how folks feel about it it might be interesting to user fiberoptic cable to transport natural light about wherever one desires, not least of which because that ought to prove quite simple to be able to switch on and off at will.
Comments
The distress over remote work comes not from employers, but from owners of commercial real estate.
Here's a view of that from a lending broker in the commercial real estate sector. [1] The high vacancy rate is all too real, and papering it over with "extend and pretend" lending tricks is mostly over. A lot of loans renew in 2026-2027, and they won't have the near zero interest rates from last time. Vacancy rates are higher than generally reported, because many landlords are making concessions.[2] San Francisco has about a 30% office vacancy rate, by the way. All this means foreclosures, distressed property, markdowns, and bankruptcies. "A January 2026 Morningstar DBRS analysis, reported by The Wall Street Journal and The Real Deal, found that more than half of the roughly $100 billion of securitized commercial mortgages coming due in 2026 are unlikely to pay off at maturity."
The loud "return to office" pronouncements did not result in an increase in office space in use. Despite all the noise, remote work has not really decreased much in recent years. "Less than 1/3 of companies requiring fully in-person work in 2026."[3]
[1] https://fidentcapital.com/the-2026-maturity-wall-what-the-en...
[2] https://www.cbcworldwide.com/blog/buyers-sellers-are-making-...
[3] https://founderreports.com/return-to-office-statistics/
Remote work is generally being displaced by hybrid. That still requires employees to live in expensive metros and employers to maintain offices with space for everyone. The offices can be a little more austere and the commutes a little worse given that they're only for 2-3 days a week, but everybody's still got to pay for basically the same stuff. Downtown retail, though, is screwed with only 2-3 days of foot traffic to pay the bills.
Hmm, a city in desperate need of housing has an oversupply of office space. I know it's not a simple conversion, but it feels like a natural fit.
It is likely we need to see it crash first. I am not in this industry but it does make sense to me that it gets easier after the current owner gets wiped out, banks take possession, value gets marked down, and then money gets spent on the conversion.
With the loan under water or the fear of it going that way it is probably hard to fund additional debt for a multi-year construction effort when no one is sure which way the market will go. Also may mean that they miss out on a govt bailout that could make them whole.
Just a theory on why we haven’t seen much of this.
The key problem with adapting offices into apartments is the lack of natural light in office floor plans. You have a glass skyscraper that has a huge floor surface, but no way to deliver light in the middle of the building. So even if converting it, you’re looking at making very big apartments since they need to hug at least one exterior wall to have any light, and then go toward the middle of the floor plan, whilst getting darker and darker. Essentially you’d be buying a 1-window or 2-window apartment with multiple bedrooms, which is hardly desirable. The problem is that we’ve built office spaces quite differently than residential high-rises, making a conversion into (desirable) apartments sometimes untenable.
Yeah, in my mind it could go one of two ways - huge luxury apartments, or tiny ones with communal amenities in the center, more similar to a dorm.
While the latter may sound ridiculous, one thing I've heard over and over(and over) again from younger people in the area was complaining about paying so much for rent when they're never home, and just needing a place to sleep. I'm not up with zoning or even the feasibility of such a thing, more of a thought experiment.
Agreed, a dorm-like setup with amenities in the middle might work. It’s a whole different economic model and pitch to potential buyers/renters, but it could work.
As long as I have reliable climate control I prefer not having windows or "natural light".
I presently live in a townhouse triplex with like 5 huge windows to the outside world and everyone in my household has them permanently blackout-curtained like nobody's business.. and there is still way too much light getting in each one of them. :(
Perhaps there are vampire-like demographics which could be served by some of the interior-space of such buildings?
Plus, depending how folks feel about it it might be interesting to user fiberoptic cable to transport natural light about wherever one desires, not least of which because that ought to prove quite simple to be able to switch on and off at will.