Not surprised, the US is backed into a lifestyle that is hard to maintain. They are struggling to grow their productivity and thus it is easier to spend big on the credit card and just hope that folks don't move away from the petrodollar.
I said it yesterday on here, Trump was right when he said "So long as oil is bought in US dollars, the debt doesn't matter." But when that comes down, it is going to hurt. That will be any time between next Tuesday and 50 years from now.
Based on current events in the US 10y and 30y bonds, the end is coming quicker than people think or are prepared for.
I really don’t see a way out of this that isn’t high inflation (about 15%), lower dollar valuation, bonds taking a huge hit, unemployment moving up, etc.
I mean, just look at AI capex. It’s directly competing for US debt - and if the AI bet works out - results in even less taxable income for the government as human capital is replaced by AI. For something like 40 states, the biggest employer is healthcare/insurance intermediaries, which are absolutely ripe for replacement.
/remindme! I’d bet gold price doubles in the next 2 years.
Comments
Not surprised, the US is backed into a lifestyle that is hard to maintain. They are struggling to grow their productivity and thus it is easier to spend big on the credit card and just hope that folks don't move away from the petrodollar.
I said it yesterday on here, Trump was right when he said "So long as oil is bought in US dollars, the debt doesn't matter." But when that comes down, it is going to hurt. That will be any time between next Tuesday and 50 years from now.
Based on current events in the US 10y and 30y bonds, the end is coming quicker than people think or are prepared for.
I really don’t see a way out of this that isn’t high inflation (about 15%), lower dollar valuation, bonds taking a huge hit, unemployment moving up, etc.
I mean, just look at AI capex. It’s directly competing for US debt - and if the AI bet works out - results in even less taxable income for the government as human capital is replaced by AI. For something like 40 states, the biggest employer is healthcare/insurance intermediaries, which are absolutely ripe for replacement.
/remindme! I’d bet gold price doubles in the next 2 years.