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What makes researchers in general a leading indicator?

Countries that are on an upward research trajectory are likely to continue high-tech industrial progress.

That's a general observation/opinion, not evidence that it's a leading indicator of anything. There are far less indirect measures of "high-tech industrial progress" as well.

You think the fact that US researchers are leaving for China because the US does not value basic science anymore but China does is not evidence of anything?

I think the US under the Trump administration is making a series of errors that do have consequences. I also believe that some researchers and academicians have sought positions in Chinese universities, although the numbers suggest a majority looked to Europe rather than Asia. Very few that I can find hard info on have emigrated however, much like it would be foolish of me to claim that 300K Chinese students in the US per year were migrating here to stay; we both know they're just visiting.

I also have to say that in trying to find hard numbers for any of this I was struck by how little is available beyond early claims in late 2025, plans to "welcome" US scientists in various countries, and other projects that haven't been extensively reported on since. If you can find better hard data on the topic I'd welcome it.

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