Here's a crazy one: I've got a 38 years old Porsche 911 Carrera since the last century (I bought it in 1999). It used to be my daily. It still runs totally fine: regularly using it to go pick the kid at school.
I've got another car that's 13 years old and has got 126 000 miles / 202 000 km and that is 13 years old. In the 8 years I've had this one, my "green" doctor buddy changed four times his car.
Who's consuming the most? My ecological doctor friend who changes car every two years, my 13 years old daily or my 38 years car? (most cars have long been destroyed after 38 years)
Sure, the 38 old Porsche is a bit of a gas guzzler but the thing still runs strong. One Bosch Motronic electronic board for the fuel injection and that's it: no OTA updates, fully mechanical dashboard (which looks gorgeous btw).
Who's really the consumerist here? Me or my doctor buddy who buys a new EV every two years?
And if instead of an old Porsche I was using an old Toyota with much better mpg, then the equation is even better.
I'm not against switching to an EV but I don't want any of this OTA updates and 24/7 connected bullshit: give me an EV that doesn't phone home and I may listen.
Things however don't seem to be heading that way so I think I'll be driving used cars for a very long time.
I have a 1999 Benz E300, a 1995 Toyota FZJ80, and a 1998 Dodge Ram 2500. The Benz is by far the most complex, with full CAN network, drive-by-wire, and Bosch EDC fuel injection (no mechanical governor on the injection pump). The Toyota has a 4.5L EFI engine and an electronically controlled automatic transmission. The Dodge has a mechanically governed P7100 injection pump and a manual transmission.
As of right now, my bets on which cars will be running 30 more years from now are:
Dodge: yes
Toyota: maybe
Benz: no
I have a concept of a plan to combine the "maybe" and "no" vehicles into a single Frankenstein's monster which will undoubtedly be a "yes". It involves eliminating all the electronic controls.
I don't see how these proprietary, point-in-time hardware/software systems can possibly be maintainable long term. In 20 years there will only be 50yo ECUs available to replace my current ones.
Contrast that with any 1970s era vehicles you can buy today. So long as the rust isn't too bad, you can 100% definitely restore it mechanically.
I don't see how these proprietary, point-in-time hardware/software systems can possibly be maintainable long term. In 20 years there will only be 50yo ECUs available to replace my current ones.
There are a handful of aftermarket ECUs to do fuel injection and electronic ignition. Initial configuration is a bit of a bear and I dunno if you'll be able to find a shop to do it, but if your model runs out of working pulls, it's an option. My 1981 van has a Bosch electronic fuel injection system and if it fails (which seems rare), most people can find a replacement module from a van that was crashed or rusted out; some people put carbuerators on it; a couple people put a microsquirt. The air flow meter might be a bigger issue, they have mechanical wear and I haven't seen anything about refurbishing them (but maybe I missed it)
Yes and for diesels there are options too, but fewer and as far as I'm aware none are open source or open hardware. If I'm going to bet on the longevity and maintainability of a computer control system all 3 of these things need to be open software and open hardware or highly standardized in a very stable way:
1. Controllers. Absolutely must be open software and hardware, no compromises.
2. Actuators. If not open hardware, they must be documented sufficiently to facilitate adapting a suitable replacement in the future.
3. Sensors. Same constraints as actuators.
Unfortunately even mega/microsquirt systems don't quite get us there yet.
[edit] One example that informs my hardline stance here is reading ECU codes. On the Toyota's ECU there's an open interface for reading fault codes documented in the factory shop manual. You jump a couple pins on a connector in the engine compartment with a test light and read the number of flashes. The Benz, by contrast, is completely proprietary and "secret". It does have an OBD2 port, but almost none of the modules are accessible. To read and clear codes you need to use a round 38pin connector and software that knows how to speak their protocols. There are aftermarket systems which are somewhat unreliable but function almost "good enough". The most reliable option for an end user is to buy a counterfeit Star Diagnostics System multiplexer and a sketchy pirated version of Mercedes-Benz's diagnostics software and run it on an air gapped laptop. Or you can purchase the official Star Diagnostics System for like $20k.
So even routine maintenance is borderline impossible, let alone replacing components. Without the proprietary software, variant coding is impossible for example.
Every 20k miles in the Porsche emits as much as producing a typical EV. Maybe 50k miles in an old hybrid. And it's not just emissions, significant resources and labour go into finding, extracting, refining, transporting fuel, compared to burning half as much in a CCGT, let alone renewables.
Obviously it would be even better to keep one EV longer (hard to say how much better, they do displace ICE vehicles in the used market) but they're almost certainly consuming less than you.
Comments
Here's a crazy one: I've got a 38 years old Porsche 911 Carrera since the last century (I bought it in 1999). It used to be my daily. It still runs totally fine: regularly using it to go pick the kid at school.
I've got another car that's 13 years old and has got 126 000 miles / 202 000 km and that is 13 years old. In the 8 years I've had this one, my "green" doctor buddy changed four times his car.
Who's consuming the most? My ecological doctor friend who changes car every two years, my 13 years old daily or my 38 years car? (most cars have long been destroyed after 38 years)
Sure, the 38 old Porsche is a bit of a gas guzzler but the thing still runs strong. One Bosch Motronic electronic board for the fuel injection and that's it: no OTA updates, fully mechanical dashboard (which looks gorgeous btw).
Who's really the consumerist here? Me or my doctor buddy who buys a new EV every two years?
And if instead of an old Porsche I was using an old Toyota with much better mpg, then the equation is even better.
I'm not against switching to an EV but I don't want any of this OTA updates and 24/7 connected bullshit: give me an EV that doesn't phone home and I may listen.
Things however don't seem to be heading that way so I think I'll be driving used cars for a very long time.
I have a 1999 Benz E300, a 1995 Toyota FZJ80, and a 1998 Dodge Ram 2500. The Benz is by far the most complex, with full CAN network, drive-by-wire, and Bosch EDC fuel injection (no mechanical governor on the injection pump). The Toyota has a 4.5L EFI engine and an electronically controlled automatic transmission. The Dodge has a mechanically governed P7100 injection pump and a manual transmission.
As of right now, my bets on which cars will be running 30 more years from now are:
Dodge: yes
Toyota: maybe
Benz: no
I have a concept of a plan to combine the "maybe" and "no" vehicles into a single Frankenstein's monster which will undoubtedly be a "yes". It involves eliminating all the electronic controls.
I don't see how these proprietary, point-in-time hardware/software systems can possibly be maintainable long term. In 20 years there will only be 50yo ECUs available to replace my current ones.
Contrast that with any 1970s era vehicles you can buy today. So long as the rust isn't too bad, you can 100% definitely restore it mechanically.
There are a handful of aftermarket ECUs to do fuel injection and electronic ignition. Initial configuration is a bit of a bear and I dunno if you'll be able to find a shop to do it, but if your model runs out of working pulls, it's an option. My 1981 van has a Bosch electronic fuel injection system and if it fails (which seems rare), most people can find a replacement module from a van that was crashed or rusted out; some people put carbuerators on it; a couple people put a microsquirt. The air flow meter might be a bigger issue, they have mechanical wear and I haven't seen anything about refurbishing them (but maybe I missed it)
Yes and for diesels there are options too, but fewer and as far as I'm aware none are open source or open hardware. If I'm going to bet on the longevity and maintainability of a computer control system all 3 of these things need to be open software and open hardware or highly standardized in a very stable way:
1. Controllers. Absolutely must be open software and hardware, no compromises.
2. Actuators. If not open hardware, they must be documented sufficiently to facilitate adapting a suitable replacement in the future.
3. Sensors. Same constraints as actuators.
Unfortunately even mega/microsquirt systems don't quite get us there yet.
[edit] One example that informs my hardline stance here is reading ECU codes. On the Toyota's ECU there's an open interface for reading fault codes documented in the factory shop manual. You jump a couple pins on a connector in the engine compartment with a test light and read the number of flashes. The Benz, by contrast, is completely proprietary and "secret". It does have an OBD2 port, but almost none of the modules are accessible. To read and clear codes you need to use a round 38pin connector and software that knows how to speak their protocols. There are aftermarket systems which are somewhat unreliable but function almost "good enough". The most reliable option for an end user is to buy a counterfeit Star Diagnostics System multiplexer and a sketchy pirated version of Mercedes-Benz's diagnostics software and run it on an air gapped laptop. Or you can purchase the official Star Diagnostics System for like $20k.
So even routine maintenance is borderline impossible, let alone replacing components. Without the proprietary software, variant coding is impossible for example.
Every 20k miles in the Porsche emits as much as producing a typical EV. Maybe 50k miles in an old hybrid. And it's not just emissions, significant resources and labour go into finding, extracting, refining, transporting fuel, compared to burning half as much in a CCGT, let alone renewables.
Obviously it would be even better to keep one EV longer (hard to say how much better, they do displace ICE vehicles in the used market) but they're almost certainly consuming less than you.
People like your doctor friend are where the used cars you buy come from. I imagine when he gets a new one he sells the old one.
Certainly he creates some demand for new cars and you make a good point about reducing consumption.