1) demographics are collapsing worse than expected for high value cohorts (working and fighting age men and child bearing women) because older numbers didn’t cohort ages eg real numbers can linearly decline supported but large older cohorts while younger cohorts can collapse much faster.
2) The UN failed to do math in the cohort trap (each generation of women is smaller making less children) that bends down the curve even more steeply faster
3) china is undergoing strategic compression and Russia is already in it. Russia seeks to have chosen to “go out in a flame rather than slowly decline”
4) the third and developing world was widely assumed to be our demographic bailout, latest numbers show they are collapsing faster than the developed non Asian world.
But this is not some "hard" problem, let's say in a way "peak oil" was seen as a "hard" problem 20-25 years ago: a resource limitation you can't just wish away. There's no problem with having as many babies as needed, it can be solved at a flip of a switch with only a minor readjustment of political expectations with almost no physical cost to anyone.
No, it's a lot simpler. Governments should just have babies of their own, using donor eggs and sperm of people they consider to be high-value, using cheaply hired foreign women of any race for gestation, and raising them in specialised institutions - and funding it by abandoning all (indeed terribly inefficient) family-stimulating policies like childcare, tax benefits, etc.
To avoid political problems, make sure these new people do not become citizens so they don't vote, let them just be workers and consumers.
Comments
can you say more about 1?
Unsure if you’ll see this.
1) demographics are collapsing worse than expected for high value cohorts (working and fighting age men and child bearing women) because older numbers didn’t cohort ages eg real numbers can linearly decline supported but large older cohorts while younger cohorts can collapse much faster.
2) The UN failed to do math in the cohort trap (each generation of women is smaller making less children) that bends down the curve even more steeply faster
3) china is undergoing strategic compression and Russia is already in it. Russia seeks to have chosen to “go out in a flame rather than slowly decline”
4) the third and developing world was widely assumed to be our demographic bailout, latest numbers show they are collapsing faster than the developed non Asian world.
But this is not some "hard" problem, let's say in a way "peak oil" was seen as a "hard" problem 20-25 years ago: a resource limitation you can't just wish away. There's no problem with having as many babies as needed, it can be solved at a flip of a switch with only a minor readjustment of political expectations with almost no physical cost to anyone.
I'll just say that over 2 decades of trying and billions of dollars spent by the Nordics, Singapore, China, Japan, and Korea say otherwise.
Changing human motivations is significantly harder than drilling a new hole or putting up a solar panel.
No, it's a lot simpler. Governments should just have babies of their own, using donor eggs and sperm of people they consider to be high-value, using cheaply hired foreign women of any race for gestation, and raising them in specialised institutions - and funding it by abandoning all (indeed terribly inefficient) family-stimulating policies like childcare, tax benefits, etc.
To avoid political problems, make sure these new people do not become citizens so they don't vote, let them just be workers and consumers.
How is that simple? it seems like the massive cultural and political challenges are just being handwaved away
Chill out there Tyrell.
Thanks, 4 is totally news to me and had also been assuming that was the bailout