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>. And yet we seem to be taken by surprise, well, almost every time.

Don't forget about the possibility of the two following scenarios:

1.) The CIA succeeded and therefore the US Government weren't taken by surprise - even if the general population were

2.) They knew about something and therefore prevented or countered it, therefore the public never heard about it.

3.) The CIA knew, and were ignored.

4.) The CIA knew, and didn't know that they knew.

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