Personally, if I were interpreting the bet, and that browser behavior had been changed before the day of the bet, I'd interpret that as failure, because the browser didn't show an HTML page, it showed a warning dialogue.
And in any case, at some point after browsers start doing that, I will be unsurprised if some further conditions prevail that provide reason for web servers to stop listening on http at all.
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Personally, if I were interpreting the bet, and that browser behavior had been changed before the day of the bet, I'd interpret that as failure, because the browser didn't show an HTML page, it showed a warning dialogue.
And in any case, at some point after browsers start doing that, I will be unsurprised if some further conditions prevail that provide reason for web servers to stop listening on http at all.