The genetic sequence for smallpox is publicly available. The bottleneck in causing maximum harm is that you need a large, expensive, well stocked lab and a lot of expertise. LLMs helping people generate a sequence just isn't the bottleneck to bioterrorism, it's entirely about abilities and equipment to deal with the physical world.
It's still worth thinking about it, of course, but by far the way to mitigate risks are things like wastewater surveillance, tracing purchases of physical supplies, etc...
Of course, an LLM could provide advice that makes it easier for a virologist to do something like this, but there is little indication the effect size there is notable.
The life sciences are very hard. A motivated undergrad requires extensive in-person teaching to become useful in far simpler projects. It's not clear how an LLM can in the foreseeable future bridge that gap when human experts can't teach someone without a lot of time and in person interaction, and that is with access to a staffed, resourced lab.
It's like nuclear weapons. Ask any nuclear physicist and they'll tell you in great detail (I mean really great detail, lots and lots and lots of detail, using common everyday phrases like "perfectly ordinary sodium iodide gamma ray spectrometer" - that really happened) how to build your own fission bomb.
After that it's just a small matter of engineering.
I would note that we already have groups of hobbyists in the bay area using CRISPr kits to genetically alter frogs, dogs, and in some cases human DNA at home, and even making MNRNA vaccines at home or community labs.
I think underestimating how much more accessible this tech is to randos very recently is a mistake.
I am aware, I personally knew someone who did so a decade ago. This is very different from synthesizing and culturing a virus from a sequence. Also, you wouldn't use CRISPR for this, you'd make a plasmid.
The best defense for these is upstream, so that the plasmid provider refuses to make it for you if it looks like a pathogen or you're not affiliated.
Comments
The genetic sequence for smallpox is publicly available. The bottleneck in causing maximum harm is that you need a large, expensive, well stocked lab and a lot of expertise. LLMs helping people generate a sequence just isn't the bottleneck to bioterrorism, it's entirely about abilities and equipment to deal with the physical world.
It's still worth thinking about it, of course, but by far the way to mitigate risks are things like wastewater surveillance, tracing purchases of physical supplies, etc...
Of course, an LLM could provide advice that makes it easier for a virologist to do something like this, but there is little indication the effect size there is notable.
The life sciences are very hard. A motivated undergrad requires extensive in-person teaching to become useful in far simpler projects. It's not clear how an LLM can in the foreseeable future bridge that gap when human experts can't teach someone without a lot of time and in person interaction, and that is with access to a staffed, resourced lab.
It's like nuclear weapons. Ask any nuclear physicist and they'll tell you in great detail (I mean really great detail, lots and lots and lots of detail, using common everyday phrases like "perfectly ordinary sodium iodide gamma ray spectrometer" - that really happened) how to build your own fission bomb.
After that it's just a small matter of engineering.
I would note that we already have groups of hobbyists in the bay area using CRISPr kits to genetically alter frogs, dogs, and in some cases human DNA at home, and even making MNRNA vaccines at home or community labs.
I think underestimating how much more accessible this tech is to randos very recently is a mistake.
I am aware, I personally knew someone who did so a decade ago. This is very different from synthesizing and culturing a virus from a sequence. Also, you wouldn't use CRISPR for this, you'd make a plasmid.
The best defense for these is upstream, so that the plasmid provider refuses to make it for you if it looks like a pathogen or you're not affiliated.