If we're nearing the point where you can spin up 1,000 agents to look for ways improve existing models, then automatically run experiments to validate those ideas, we're more or less at RSI.
As always with AI progress, compute will bottleneck this early on, but a few efficiency improvements could dramatically increase this pace of progress.
I suspect we are at most 24 months from FOOM, but I suspect within about 6-12 months most frontier AI labs will be claiming the majority of their AI research will be AI-driven.
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AI is beginning to do PHD-level math.
If we're nearing the point where you can spin up 1,000 agents to look for ways improve existing models, then automatically run experiments to validate those ideas, we're more or less at RSI.
As always with AI progress, compute will bottleneck this early on, but a few efficiency improvements could dramatically increase this pace of progress.
I suspect we are at most 24 months from FOOM, but I suspect within about 6-12 months most frontier AI labs will be claiming the majority of their AI research will be AI-driven.