American declinism has been fashionable this past decade or so, even before the economic issues. And there are still economic issues. But it has a history of being the first in the world to rise from the ashes of the old systems and build the future, and while past results are no guarantee of future successes, I am still optimistic that we are not yet spent.
American manufacturing will return. It may not be the job engine it once was, but it is still a wealth engine. American energy prospects are suddenly looking up, leading the world in both the tech to extract it and, this time, the resources to extract. We are only at the beginning of tearing down our scelerotic educational systems, but there is a good opportunity to build a truly 21st century education system over the next decade or two. We remain a high-tech economy. And we've got some wild cards up our sleeve, like a budding space industry and advanced medical research, to say nothing of whatever industry will come out of nowhere in the next ten to fifteen years that I'm not even thinking of to become huge.
I celebrate anybody who succeeds, and I don't particularly care if America is or remains "exceptional". I want everyone to succeed. I'm just saying that I think there's good reason to believe that for all the challenges in the world that America still has a very good chance to be in the set of successful countries in the medium term (5-25 years).
It never left. The US manufacturing output steadily increased from the 50's to the recent recession. Right now, it is at an all time high. The idea of american manufacturing being shipped overseas is just false, and I'm sick of people repeating it.
What happened is that as wages got expensive, US labor was replaced by machines where possible, and by some cheap process steps overseas where not possible. Intel CPUs are a good example: They used to be made wholly in the US, employing a lot of blue-collar workers. To save costs, the factories were automated to the point where the only process steps left that employ a lot of people without advanced degrees are packaging and testing. And then those were shipped to Malaysia and Costa Rica. The high-capital process steps that create most of the value in the system are still in Oregon, Arizona and New Mexico.
Manufacturing jobs, as they used to be, are gone. Not because of globalization, but because of robots. And the old kind of manufacturing jobs will never return -- it just doesn't make sense to pay people $30 a hour for what could be done faster, cheaper and better by a robot.
What is the role of environmental regulations on locating silicon fabs?
A buddy of mine made a mint working as a welder building fabs in Phoenix when they were leaving California in search of cheaper water and lower regulations. He was very worried about the toxic emissions and very lax (non existent) oversight.
Comments
American declinism has been fashionable this past decade or so, even before the economic issues. And there are still economic issues. But it has a history of being the first in the world to rise from the ashes of the old systems and build the future, and while past results are no guarantee of future successes, I am still optimistic that we are not yet spent.
American manufacturing will return. It may not be the job engine it once was, but it is still a wealth engine. American energy prospects are suddenly looking up, leading the world in both the tech to extract it and, this time, the resources to extract. We are only at the beginning of tearing down our scelerotic educational systems, but there is a good opportunity to build a truly 21st century education system over the next decade or two. We remain a high-tech economy. And we've got some wild cards up our sleeve, like a budding space industry and advanced medical research, to say nothing of whatever industry will come out of nowhere in the next ten to fifteen years that I'm not even thinking of to become huge.
I celebrate anybody who succeeds, and I don't particularly care if America is or remains "exceptional". I want everyone to succeed. I'm just saying that I think there's good reason to believe that for all the challenges in the world that America still has a very good chance to be in the set of successful countries in the medium term (5-25 years).
> American manufacturing will return.
It never left. The US manufacturing output steadily increased from the 50's to the recent recession. Right now, it is at an all time high. The idea of american manufacturing being shipped overseas is just false, and I'm sick of people repeating it.
What happened is that as wages got expensive, US labor was replaced by machines where possible, and by some cheap process steps overseas where not possible. Intel CPUs are a good example: They used to be made wholly in the US, employing a lot of blue-collar workers. To save costs, the factories were automated to the point where the only process steps left that employ a lot of people without advanced degrees are packaging and testing. And then those were shipped to Malaysia and Costa Rica. The high-capital process steps that create most of the value in the system are still in Oregon, Arizona and New Mexico.
Manufacturing jobs, as they used to be, are gone. Not because of globalization, but because of robots. And the old kind of manufacturing jobs will never return -- it just doesn't make sense to pay people $30 a hour for what could be done faster, cheaper and better by a robot.
What is the role of environmental regulations on locating silicon fabs?
A buddy of mine made a mint working as a welder building fabs in Phoenix when they were leaving California in search of cheaper water and lower regulations. He was very worried about the toxic emissions and very lax (non existent) oversight.
American Manufacturing is at an all-time high. It's not employing as many people, but that is due to efficiency, not decline.