2. Current LLMs are powerful but in no way does this indicate that it's just a matter of time until we have AGI - itself a pretty vague marketing term.
Objectively, they are surpassing human performance in more areas every year if not every few months.
So we don't need to wait for indicates, they are very visible.
If there were signs this was not continuing, that would be something to bring up. But there are not. The quality of models keeps going up. Relative to human beings.
And where they have surpassed us, they don't stop improving. On many dimensions are clearly superhuman. It is so easy to complain about their weaknesses that somehow, even people who use them, fail to "notice" they are increasingly operating well beyond human capabilities in many ways.
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Objectively, they are surpassing human performance in more areas every year if not every few months.
So we don't need to wait for indicates, they are very visible.
If there were signs this was not continuing, that would be something to bring up. But there are not. The quality of models keeps going up. Relative to human beings.
And where they have surpassed us, they don't stop improving. On many dimensions are clearly superhuman. It is so easy to complain about their weaknesses that somehow, even people who use them, fail to "notice" they are increasingly operating well beyond human capabilities in many ways.