> I remember when their cars were a joke, and when their cellphones were cheap trash.
Any country can make cars and phones now if they REALLY want to, they just don't because they wouldn't be competitive on the global market at performance and at scale. But not anyone can just make an EUV machine if they want to.
Becoming a leader in commodity white goods like a phones and cars is a different beast than EUV machines. The challenges are not even remotely comparable.
China doesn't have a Zeiss, it doesn't have an ASM, it doesn't have a Cymer, it doesn't have a Trumpf, and it doesn't have a dozen other domestic competitors to western suppliers of critical parts that make an EUV machine.
And each of those suppliers, like Zeiss for example, is a leader because it has decades of expertise that can't be speed-run, even with IP theft. So before China can have an ASML it first needs a Zeiss. So ask yourself where is their Zeiss and are they beating the west's Zeiss?
This is a Manhattan Project-level endeavour, and most countries would not be capable of it. China, however, is. Even though it lacks the expertise to do all these specific things to the Western cutting edge level right now, it has the resources, the overall technology and engineering base, and the determination to achieve the goal with the full power of the Chinese economy behind it. Not to mention industrial espionage.
It might take them a decade, but they'll get there. Working on the basis that you can somehow stop China rather than merely delaying them is a comforting illusion.
>This is a Manhattan Project-level endeavour, and most countries would not be capable of it. China, however, is.
Where's the proof in that? China can't even create jet engines that outperform dated soviet designs even when they bought their IP. Some things are just almost impossible to do without the right people at the right time, and you can spend virtually unlimited money and still never get there.
Russia does not have a 5th generation engine core in even the validation phase.
China has a 5th generation engine core the WS-15, it has not only passed validation but is currently in mass production.
A true 5th generation engine core allows true supercruise
You can see the gap between the F-22, J-20 and Su-57
The F-22 supercruises from mach 1.5 -> mach 1.8 (This is because they have 5th gen engines, and is it burns its fuel stores)
The J-20 supercruises at mach 1.4 -> mach 1.8 (This is because the J-20 has a much larger internal fuel load, vs the F-22 as it burns this fuel it speeds up)
The Su-57 super cruises at mach 1.3 -> mach 1.5 (This is because it has a 4th gen engine, the actual 5th gen engine intended to power the SU-57 is stuck in development hell the Izdeliye 30 (or AL-51F1) so Russia put a souped up 4th gen engine inside the SU-57 the AL-41F1 which is the same core as the AL-31F. If they do complete their 5th gen engine the SU-57 is expected to supercruise at mach 1.8-> mach 2.0 as it burns up its fuel. Su-57 accepts more stealth penalties in exchange for superior aerodynamics.
It has the Changchun Institute of Optics, Fine Mechanics and Physics (CIOMP)
Founded 1952. One of its things:
4-Metre Silicon Carbide (SiC) Mirror: CIOMP successfully manufactured the world's largest single-piece Silicon Carbide mirror blank. It provides the optical backbone for high-resolution space telescope imaging systems
Apparently carbide mirrors are used for EUV lithography.
They have more than 1 billion people that are getting more and more educated, they have the capital and will to invest in it, they will get there eventually.
The "moat" we're talking about with private companies is that it's very hard for competitors to get enough funding to compete, and private investors are unwilling to invest in a company that will compete with a big established player. That's completely different when a state has a strategy and decides to invest to achieve a goal.
Comments
>The answer is, of course, yes.
No, not in this case.
> I remember when their cars were a joke, and when their cellphones were cheap trash.
Any country can make cars and phones now if they REALLY want to, they just don't because they wouldn't be competitive on the global market at performance and at scale. But not anyone can just make an EUV machine if they want to.
Becoming a leader in commodity white goods like a phones and cars is a different beast than EUV machines. The challenges are not even remotely comparable.
China doesn't have a Zeiss, it doesn't have an ASM, it doesn't have a Cymer, it doesn't have a Trumpf, and it doesn't have a dozen other domestic competitors to western suppliers of critical parts that make an EUV machine.
And each of those suppliers, like Zeiss for example, is a leader because it has decades of expertise that can't be speed-run, even with IP theft. So before China can have an ASML it first needs a Zeiss. So ask yourself where is their Zeiss and are they beating the west's Zeiss?
This is a Manhattan Project-level endeavour, and most countries would not be capable of it. China, however, is. Even though it lacks the expertise to do all these specific things to the Western cutting edge level right now, it has the resources, the overall technology and engineering base, and the determination to achieve the goal with the full power of the Chinese economy behind it. Not to mention industrial espionage.
It might take them a decade, but they'll get there. Working on the basis that you can somehow stop China rather than merely delaying them is a comforting illusion.
>This is a Manhattan Project-level endeavour, and most countries would not be capable of it. China, however, is.
Where's the proof in that? China can't even create jet engines that outperform dated soviet designs even when they bought their IP. Some things are just almost impossible to do without the right people at the right time, and you can spend virtually unlimited money and still never get there.
China has already beat Russia in jet engines,
Russia does not have a 5th generation engine core in even the validation phase.
China has a 5th generation engine core the WS-15, it has not only passed validation but is currently in mass production.
A true 5th generation engine core allows true supercruise
You can see the gap between the F-22, J-20 and Su-57
The F-22 supercruises from mach 1.5 -> mach 1.8 (This is because they have 5th gen engines, and is it burns its fuel stores)
The J-20 supercruises at mach 1.4 -> mach 1.8 (This is because the J-20 has a much larger internal fuel load, vs the F-22 as it burns this fuel it speeds up)
The Su-57 super cruises at mach 1.3 -> mach 1.5 (This is because it has a 4th gen engine, the actual 5th gen engine intended to power the SU-57 is stuck in development hell the Izdeliye 30 (or AL-51F1) so Russia put a souped up 4th gen engine inside the SU-57 the AL-41F1 which is the same core as the AL-31F. If they do complete their 5th gen engine the SU-57 is expected to supercruise at mach 1.8-> mach 2.0 as it burns up its fuel. Su-57 accepts more stealth penalties in exchange for superior aerodynamics.
Russia is 30 years behind the west. China isn't competing with Russia, they're competing with the west.
It has the Changchun Institute of Optics, Fine Mechanics and Physics (CIOMP)
Founded 1952. One of its things:
Apparently carbide mirrors are used for EUV lithography.
Nature article + pic of mirror https://www.nature.com/articles/s41377-022-01050-w
They have more than 1 billion people that are getting more and more educated, they have the capital and will to invest in it, they will get there eventually.
The "moat" we're talking about with private companies is that it's very hard for competitors to get enough funding to compete, and private investors are unwilling to invest in a company that will compete with a big established player. That's completely different when a state has a strategy and decides to invest to achieve a goal.
The problem is that their government doesn't let them go anywhere but into factories, no matter the education.
They were promised upwards mobility, but their leaders need factory workers, more than ever.
Huh? Where did you get your sources?
Chinese factories are more automated than ever. More and more skilled chinese do skilled white collar work not repetitive factory assembly work.