The best of the best will remain around the same price and potentially get more expensive as compute demand increases. However the intelligence/dollar ratio will increase over time due to a few factors (this is common in most tech)
1. Quantization: bigger models can be compressed and retain most of their quality, but run with a far smaller compute footprint
2. Moore's law: chips still are scaling so you can run more compute cheaper as it improves
3. Open source competition: if models from Anthropic or OpenAI get too expensive people will opt to use open source Chinese models, which would reduce demand and thus reduce prices down to a more reasonable equilibrium
Comments
The best of the best will remain around the same price and potentially get more expensive as compute demand increases. However the intelligence/dollar ratio will increase over time due to a few factors (this is common in most tech)
1. Quantization: bigger models can be compressed and retain most of their quality, but run with a far smaller compute footprint
2. Moore's law: chips still are scaling so you can run more compute cheaper as it improves
3. Open source competition: if models from Anthropic or OpenAI get too expensive people will opt to use open source Chinese models, which would reduce demand and thus reduce prices down to a more reasonable equilibrium