The spring membership numbers reveal this. Mid-spring is when the lapsed members from the prior year finally get dropped. Spring 2020 was before the pandemic had any real effect on membership (main recruiting is in the fall), so that is when LDS's withdrawal became apparent.
Then spring 2021 is when we see drops and poor recruiting during the pandemic.
Since then, membership has been largely flat, possibly declining modestly (hard to read precisely).
Comments
The 2020 drop was 1/3 LDS pullout, 1/3 pandemic.
The spring membership numbers reveal this. Mid-spring is when the lapsed members from the prior year finally get dropped. Spring 2020 was before the pandemic had any real effect on membership (main recruiting is in the fall), so that is when LDS's withdrawal became apparent.
Then spring 2021 is when we see drops and poor recruiting during the pandemic.
Since then, membership has been largely flat, possibly declining modestly (hard to read precisely).