Comment on Show HN: I built a 2-min quiz that shows you how bad you are at estimatingComments−loloquwowndueo5mo“You averaged 97% confidence but were right 80% of the time.”Heck yeah.−convexlyOP5moActually means you have really strong knowledge. That 17% gap though is what gets people in trouble in high-stakes settings!−loloquwowndueo5moYeah! I’m confident when I give an answer. In a real life scenario I would actually research the ones I’m not so sure about - but having a confident first take narrows down that research a lot.−convexlyOP5moCan't fault that, actually a great workflow. Calibration helps you know which ones to research!
Comments
“You averaged 97% confidence but were right 80% of the time.”
Heck yeah.
Actually means you have really strong knowledge. That 17% gap though is what gets people in trouble in high-stakes settings!
Yeah! I’m confident when I give an answer. In a real life scenario I would actually research the ones I’m not so sure about - but having a confident first take narrows down that research a lot.
Can't fault that, actually a great workflow. Calibration helps you know which ones to research!