Novo already guided for its first revenue decline in modern history (adjusted sales down 5-13% for 2026). Stock is down 75% from June 2024 peak. The problem isn't just generics, Lilly's tirzepatide beat CagriSema in the head-to-head, and Lilly has orforglipron (oral, way cheaper to manufacture) coming. At 11x forward earnings Novo is pricing in catastrophe, buuuuut.. the structural problems are real this time.
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Novo already guided for its first revenue decline in modern history (adjusted sales down 5-13% for 2026). Stock is down 75% from June 2024 peak. The problem isn't just generics, Lilly's tirzepatide beat CagriSema in the head-to-head, and Lilly has orforglipron (oral, way cheaper to manufacture) coming. At 11x forward earnings Novo is pricing in catastrophe, buuuuut.. the structural problems are real this time.