Survivorship bias. For every success you describe there are nine or so failures.
Skill being involved doesn’t exclude being lucky, and I believe being lucky (some people call it timing) is of utmost importance.
Ya, I respect this view. It is not the view I have, but I understand how you can have it. Eg, this is how I feel about most famous portfolio managers. Really my comment is addressed to the other view -- if it _isn't_ luck, then I think we should put some weight in what the successful practitioners say, and the ones I've heard do endorse the lean startup & co.
But it doesn't make the survivors wrong about their experience. Two truths: their experience did happen roughly how they said it happened + they got very lucky.
Seems like all the other 9 that died insist on telling the one that survived that they were somehow wrong.
For sure, I do get that one can "do everything right" and still fail, I get that point, I get that there is no formula. But it seems like people want the reverse to be true: that everyone successful is only a lucky buffoon.
Sure, but I like it to my military service, I remember the good parts only, unless I start digging.
Nobody wants to read about normal life, either you claim success or you claim failure, in between sells no copies.
Comments
Survivorship bias. For every success you describe there are nine or so failures. Skill being involved doesn’t exclude being lucky, and I believe being lucky (some people call it timing) is of utmost importance.
Ya, I respect this view. It is not the view I have, but I understand how you can have it. Eg, this is how I feel about most famous portfolio managers. Really my comment is addressed to the other view -- if it _isn't_ luck, then I think we should put some weight in what the successful practitioners say, and the ones I've heard do endorse the lean startup & co.
But it doesn't make the survivors wrong about their experience. Two truths: their experience did happen roughly how they said it happened + they got very lucky.
Seems like all the other 9 that died insist on telling the one that survived that they were somehow wrong.
For sure, I do get that one can "do everything right" and still fail, I get that point, I get that there is no formula. But it seems like people want the reverse to be true: that everyone successful is only a lucky buffoon.
Sure, but I like it to my military service, I remember the good parts only, unless I start digging. Nobody wants to read about normal life, either you claim success or you claim failure, in between sells no copies.