The consumer social space is a crapshoot: you can't predict consumer behaviour, no matter how good an entrepreneur you are. Color, Airtime, the one that wasn't instagram, and probably many more examples. Seriously, who would have predicted that the valuable part of Chatroulette was the dicks!
That said, investors are probably still right to throw money at experienced entrepreneurs. Airtime probably has lots of money left for a pivot, so best of luck to them.
That's kind of a contradiction. If you can't predict consumer behavior why would investors give money to experienced entrepreneurs? From their point of view, they would be better off giving money to someone naive so they would get a bigger cut for the same price, while getting the same odds on the "predict consumer behavior" front.
I never said it's the same odds. Maybe "crapshoot" isn't the right term. Maybe "lottery", and its certainly the case that people who can execute well get many many more tickets. They were at 30K users at one point, how many companies get that far? Airtime is only a failure if you're trying to get a $1B exit - which of course they are because they took $30m in investment and that's the deal.
You could take your $30m, throw it at 30 different teams and pray for an instagram. But then you'd have to sit on 30 boards and keep up with 30 companies. Making one large investment is not only easier to manage, but also much more likely to succeed when it's a known executor.
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The consumer social space is a crapshoot: you can't predict consumer behaviour, no matter how good an entrepreneur you are. Color, Airtime, the one that wasn't instagram, and probably many more examples. Seriously, who would have predicted that the valuable part of Chatroulette was the dicks!
That said, investors are probably still right to throw money at experienced entrepreneurs. Airtime probably has lots of money left for a pivot, so best of luck to them.
That's kind of a contradiction. If you can't predict consumer behavior why would investors give money to experienced entrepreneurs? From their point of view, they would be better off giving money to someone naive so they would get a bigger cut for the same price, while getting the same odds on the "predict consumer behavior" front.
I never said it's the same odds. Maybe "crapshoot" isn't the right term. Maybe "lottery", and its certainly the case that people who can execute well get many many more tickets. They were at 30K users at one point, how many companies get that far? Airtime is only a failure if you're trying to get a $1B exit - which of course they are because they took $30m in investment and that's the deal.
You could take your $30m, throw it at 30 different teams and pray for an instagram. But then you'd have to sit on 30 boards and keep up with 30 companies. Making one large investment is not only easier to manage, but also much more likely to succeed when it's a known executor.