From what I understand of the advertising market, companies like Google and Facebook make bucketloads of ads primarily because they own so much of the vertical integration of ad markets. Meanwhile, the way OpenAI appears to be integrating ads makes it seem to me that they're positioned only to take the smallest slice of the pie--a place to hoist ads--which means they're revenue-per-user I would estimate to be a lot closer to, say, a newspaper website than the biggest of social media sites, or maybe along the lines of Twitter or Tumblr, which never posted spectacular profits.
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From what I understand of the advertising market, companies like Google and Facebook make bucketloads of ads primarily because they own so much of the vertical integration of ad markets. Meanwhile, the way OpenAI appears to be integrating ads makes it seem to me that they're positioned only to take the smallest slice of the pie--a place to hoist ads--which means they're revenue-per-user I would estimate to be a lot closer to, say, a newspaper website than the biggest of social media sites, or maybe along the lines of Twitter or Tumblr, which never posted spectacular profits.
Even if they're at the ARPU of Twitter that's $18-20 (will take them a while to reach it imo). At 800M WAU that's up to $16B in additional revenue.
This is assuming they don't build the vertical stack at all which is unlikely given their highly competent product team.
What other layers are you referencing that OpenAI doesn't have?