By this criteria - all papers that extrapolate are BS papers.
There’s a ridiculous number of stars in the sky - no matter how low you put the odds of intelligent life, you will still end up with more than 1 civilized species in the universe.
This is, at least for me, the primary utility of such extrapolations. And eventually - extrapolations will be tested.
Setting aside if its perfectly fine or not, its not the same as extrapolating from actual data (and no its not “perfectly fine” to completely make up a number and pretend like its science.)
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By this criteria - all papers that extrapolate are BS papers.
There’s a ridiculous number of stars in the sky - no matter how low you put the odds of intelligent life, you will still end up with more than 1 civilized species in the universe.
This is, at least for me, the primary utility of such extrapolations. And eventually - extrapolations will be tested.
Extrapolating from multiple good data points and making up a number based on zero examples are absolutely not the same thing.
Coming up with an estimate, calling it a theory and being clear about the fact that it’s not a sure thing ? That’s perfectly fine.
Setting aside if its perfectly fine or not, its not the same as extrapolating from actual data (and no its not “perfectly fine” to completely make up a number and pretend like its science.)