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I don’t think Sam Altman thinks (2) is true, in fact it seems all the AI insiders are starting to signal that neither 1 or 2 will happen, why is it only outsiders saying this now?

Also the article, as all doomer articles I read do, address your points directly.

The amounts Altman is investing make little sense if he doesn't believe in (2).

Howso? I think they make more sense in spite of that. What else is he going to do, admit defeat? Also, even if it never gets better, he still wants to sell what they do have.

I mean if he just wanted to cash out he could cut the spend to a few billion and try to float / cash out. I mean why try to spend unprecedented amounts if he thinks it'll all crash?

I just watched an interview and he seems to be leaning the other way that self improving AI is about to kick off https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JfE1Wun9xkk&t=810s That would be a step beyond the normal Moore's law type exponential.

Because it's not a business to him, it's a religion.

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