While true, I'm still interested in how a model with this many variables is created and run. It seems rather difficult (read: impossible) to model a global economy in my opinion.
I really have no clue how the economy works, but right now there is only one guy I trust,
Ray Dalio
Self made macro hedge fund manager with a rags to riches story. He's pretty strange and employs an army of financial engineers in some forest in Connecticut to model this stuff (and make billions of dollars in the process).
Oh, and forgot to mention, it's now the largest hedgefund in the world.
Comments
How does one even begin to model things like this?
If this model were actually accurate, Zandi would be sitting on a throne of gold.
While true, I'm still interested in how a model with this many variables is created and run. It seems rather difficult (read: impossible) to model a global economy in my opinion.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Econometrics
Econometrics is the science of modeling the economy. But like you said it's pretty much impossible to get calculations correct.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/System_dynamics
The graphs there give you an idea. Just imagine them with 1700 inputs and many 1000s of interactions.
Agreed. There's no way he's getting accurate results.
I really have no clue how the economy works, but right now there is only one guy I trust,
Ray Dalio
Self made macro hedge fund manager with a rags to riches story. He's pretty strange and employs an army of financial engineers in some forest in Connecticut to model this stuff (and make billions of dollars in the process).
Oh, and forgot to mention, it's now the largest hedgefund in the world.