>San Francisco is now for all intents and purposes a boom town.
Yes. This happens every decade or so. It comes and goes with the business cycle. Just like commodity prices won't always be way higher than everything else, people won't be investing in 'social media' at inflated P/E ratios forever, too.
(what I find interesting is that housing prices did not fall that much during the '01 crash, not for another what, 7-8 years.)
>This low density is ultimately shortsighted as it comes at the expensive of amenities and will at some point impact the ability for employers to stay in the area as the rising property prices make commercial activity increasingly untenable.
I think this is our real long-term problem, especially in the silicon valley, south of SF. (I mean, the problems with caltrain are an issue, too... but I think it's going to be easier to just run caltrain more often than it is going to be to build more high density housing.)
>The whole rent control and construction limits is going to have to end. The longer it goes on, the worse the correction will be (IMHO).
Personally? I think the boom will end before the lack of construction becomes that huge of a deal.
I mean, sustainable businesses that don't depend on investor dollars are not what's driving this boom; unless we generate several new google/ebay like profitable powerhouses, the crash is coming and it's going to be big. Even then, right now? everyone, including "i take no investment" bootstrapped companies like mine are getting a boost from the torrents of investor money flowing into the area. I am personally a little bit frightened for my long-term contracts.
If anything, the fact that we can't build a lot of new stuff is going to have a dampening effect; It's going to tend to dampen both the upswing, as it means there won't be a huge construction boom, and it's encouraging companies to spread out, and it will temper the inevitable downswing for similar reasons. There won't be as far to fall.
There is a /lot/ of talent in the area, and eh, yeah, a lot of them will leave when the investment money leaves, but there will still be plenty of us left. If "social" investor money leaves and pushes down the price of space and labour, it will be fertile ground for other industries that need Engineering talent. We will come back, we always do.
Comments
>San Francisco is now for all intents and purposes a boom town.
Yes. This happens every decade or so. It comes and goes with the business cycle. Just like commodity prices won't always be way higher than everything else, people won't be investing in 'social media' at inflated P/E ratios forever, too.
(what I find interesting is that housing prices did not fall that much during the '01 crash, not for another what, 7-8 years.)
>This low density is ultimately shortsighted as it comes at the expensive of amenities and will at some point impact the ability for employers to stay in the area as the rising property prices make commercial activity increasingly untenable.
I think this is our real long-term problem, especially in the silicon valley, south of SF. (I mean, the problems with caltrain are an issue, too... but I think it's going to be easier to just run caltrain more often than it is going to be to build more high density housing.)
>The whole rent control and construction limits is going to have to end. The longer it goes on, the worse the correction will be (IMHO).
Personally? I think the boom will end before the lack of construction becomes that huge of a deal.
I mean, sustainable businesses that don't depend on investor dollars are not what's driving this boom; unless we generate several new google/ebay like profitable powerhouses, the crash is coming and it's going to be big. Even then, right now? everyone, including "i take no investment" bootstrapped companies like mine are getting a boost from the torrents of investor money flowing into the area. I am personally a little bit frightened for my long-term contracts.
If anything, the fact that we can't build a lot of new stuff is going to have a dampening effect; It's going to tend to dampen both the upswing, as it means there won't be a huge construction boom, and it's encouraging companies to spread out, and it will temper the inevitable downswing for similar reasons. There won't be as far to fall.
There is a /lot/ of talent in the area, and eh, yeah, a lot of them will leave when the investment money leaves, but there will still be plenty of us left. If "social" investor money leaves and pushes down the price of space and labour, it will be fertile ground for other industries that need Engineering talent. We will come back, we always do.