That analogy only makes sense if current AI capabilities : AGI :: 1950s car speed : light speed.
The speed equivalent of AGI is way below light speed, in that the requirements for silicon to replicate the synaptic complexity of the human brain is far below the maximum compute human civilization can achieve as allowable by physics.
The more important question is whether the progress we've seen in AI is putting us on reliable track to hit AGI in the near future. My opinion is that we are, and not just because Demis, Sam, Elon and Dario say so, though they have very good reasons for believing so (yes, besides mere hype and speculation.)
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This does not follow. Your argument, set in the 1950s, would be that cars keep getting faster, therefore they will reach light speed.
That analogy only makes sense if current AI capabilities : AGI :: 1950s car speed : light speed.
The speed equivalent of AGI is way below light speed, in that the requirements for silicon to replicate the synaptic complexity of the human brain is far below the maximum compute human civilization can achieve as allowable by physics.
The more important question is whether the progress we've seen in AI is putting us on reliable track to hit AGI in the near future. My opinion is that we are, and not just because Demis, Sam, Elon and Dario say so, though they have very good reasons for believing so (yes, besides mere hype and speculation.)