No matter how you slice the numbers though, the fact remains that if it's economical to pay for someone's car-optimised battery pack, then it must be even more economical to build a giant fixed battery.
(Since we know that the latter isn't economical, then that also indicates a problem with your numbers - I suspect that for one thing, insurance couldn't be economically provided at $12k/pack if all of those packs were being used for daily peaking storage).
I suspect you're right, and it may well mean it doesn't make outright financial sense today.
The key is probably that the $12k replacement program is an investment in Tesla; they're cash starved, and are willing to sell the batteries at a loss in return for the cash advance. Also, they're betting on the batteries being ~half price in 10 years.
From further reading, they'd be $30k - 2.5 times the price - to buy upfront today.
But that doesn't mean that the subsidy doesn't exist - if 1% of consumers would buy a Model S due to its other advantages, maybe 2-3% would if that purchase returned $1500 a year back to them.
So while you're right that it's not outright going to pay for itself in 2012, it probably halves the gap between a Model S and a BMW in the same class, and it's only going to get better as battery/PV technology improves.
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No matter how you slice the numbers though, the fact remains that if it's economical to pay for someone's car-optimised battery pack, then it must be even more economical to build a giant fixed battery.
(Since we know that the latter isn't economical, then that also indicates a problem with your numbers - I suspect that for one thing, insurance couldn't be economically provided at $12k/pack if all of those packs were being used for daily peaking storage).
I suspect you're right, and it may well mean it doesn't make outright financial sense today.
The key is probably that the $12k replacement program is an investment in Tesla; they're cash starved, and are willing to sell the batteries at a loss in return for the cash advance. Also, they're betting on the batteries being ~half price in 10 years.
From further reading, they'd be $30k - 2.5 times the price - to buy upfront today.
But that doesn't mean that the subsidy doesn't exist - if 1% of consumers would buy a Model S due to its other advantages, maybe 2-3% would if that purchase returned $1500 a year back to them.
So while you're right that it's not outright going to pay for itself in 2012, it probably halves the gap between a Model S and a BMW in the same class, and it's only going to get better as battery/PV technology improves.