Preprint Abstract: Global surface warming has accelerated since around 2010, relative to the preceding half century1-3. This has coincided with China’s efforts to reduce air pollution through restricted atmospheric aerosol and precursor emissions. A direct link between the two has, however, not yet been established. Here we show, using a large set of simulations from eight Earth System Models, how a time evolving 75% reduction in Chinese sulfate emissions partially unmasks greenhouse driven warming and influences the pattern of surface temperature change. We find a rapidly evolving global, annual-mean warming of 0.07 ± 0.05 ºC, sufficient to explain a majority of the uptick in global warming rate since 2010. We also find North-Pacific warming and a top-of-atmosphere radiative imbalance that are consistent with recent observations. China’s aerosol cleanup is thus likely a key contributor to recent global warming acceleration, and to Pacific warming trends.
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Preprint Abstract: Global surface warming has accelerated since around 2010, relative to the preceding half century1-3. This has coincided with China’s efforts to reduce air pollution through restricted atmospheric aerosol and precursor emissions. A direct link between the two has, however, not yet been established. Here we show, using a large set of simulations from eight Earth System Models, how a time evolving 75% reduction in Chinese sulfate emissions partially unmasks greenhouse driven warming and influences the pattern of surface temperature change. We find a rapidly evolving global, annual-mean warming of 0.07 ± 0.05 ºC, sufficient to explain a majority of the uptick in global warming rate since 2010. We also find North-Pacific warming and a top-of-atmosphere radiative imbalance that are consistent with recent observations. China’s aerosol cleanup is thus likely a key contributor to recent global warming acceleration, and to Pacific warming trends.