Comment on Deep Learning, Deep ScandalComments−fouc1yGPT-1 to GPT-2: June 2018 to February 2019 = 8 months.GPT-2 to GPT-3: February 2019 to June 2020 = 16 months.GPT-3 to GPT-4: June 2020 to March 2023 = 33 months.Looks like time to get to the next level is doubling. So we can expect GPT-5 sometime June 2028.Feels like people are being premature about claiming AI winter or that it is somehow a scandal that we don't already have GPT-5.It's going to take time. We need some more patience in this industry.−crmi1yThis is overlooking the massive capital that's been invested in the part of the 33 months... Which alters the doubling timeline significantly.−kartoffelmos1yConsidering the capital burn rate here, I suspect that waiting years between iterations will be a hard pill to swallow for investors.
Comments
GPT-1 to GPT-2: June 2018 to February 2019 = 8 months.
GPT-2 to GPT-3: February 2019 to June 2020 = 16 months.
GPT-3 to GPT-4: June 2020 to March 2023 = 33 months.
Looks like time to get to the next level is doubling. So we can expect GPT-5 sometime June 2028.
Feels like people are being premature about claiming AI winter or that it is somehow a scandal that we don't already have GPT-5.
It's going to take time. We need some more patience in this industry.
This is overlooking the massive capital that's been invested in the part of the 33 months... Which alters the doubling timeline significantly.
Considering the capital burn rate here, I suspect that waiting years between iterations will be a hard pill to swallow for investors.