What are the chances that XAI just happened to have a thinking model close to as good as revolutionary DeepSeek but happened to launch it 30 days later?
Extremely, extremely good. That was in fact the real point of the deepseek paper - it was extremely cheap to turn a frontier(ish?) model into a reasoning model. There is nothing suspicious about this timeline from an ML Ops point of view.
In fact DeepSeek themselves in a sort of victory lap released six OTHER models from other providers finetuned with reasoning as part of the initial drop.
Perhaps Grok-3 used the reasoning methodology from DeepSeek more than the underlying model, but the similarity of Grok-3 results to DeepSeek suggests that XAI used more than that.
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Extremely, extremely good. That was in fact the real point of the deepseek paper - it was extremely cheap to turn a frontier(ish?) model into a reasoning model. There is nothing suspicious about this timeline from an ML Ops point of view.
In fact DeepSeek themselves in a sort of victory lap released six OTHER models from other providers finetuned with reasoning as part of the initial drop.
Perhaps Grok-3 used the reasoning methodology from DeepSeek more than the underlying model, but the similarity of Grok-3 results to DeepSeek suggests that XAI used more than that.