(different person) Just eyeballing the graph, If we can attribute the entire spike to a "pulling forward" effect, then I'm guessing it might end late 2026 or so (as a gradual slope over longer period, not a hard noticeable line). Then give it a few months for stabilization / to ignore random normal fluctuations that just happen to be at that time. So without more information, early 2027 we can call it a long-term trend for certain?
Extending it back to 1995 or so like the first comment suggested would give us a few more upsets in the market to see more easily if this effect actually exists in this data. That said, their source is https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE so that data probably doesn't exist.
Comments
Why would you start the graph from 2020? The only thing it shows is that Covid was such a strange time.
Stretch the graph to 1995 and then we can talk.
Regardless of what happened during covid, the chart shows the listings have decreased since five years ago, prior to covid.
The point is that was there an overhire/pull forward during covid that we're still paying for or is this a long term trend?
That's a fair point. Do you have any thoughts on how long it'll take for a decline to qualify as long term?
(different person) Just eyeballing the graph, If we can attribute the entire spike to a "pulling forward" effect, then I'm guessing it might end late 2026 or so (as a gradual slope over longer period, not a hard noticeable line). Then give it a few months for stabilization / to ignore random normal fluctuations that just happen to be at that time. So without more information, early 2027 we can call it a long-term trend for certain?
Extending it back to 1995 or so like the first comment suggested would give us a few more upsets in the market to see more easily if this effect actually exists in this data. That said, their source is https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE so that data probably doesn't exist.