I don’t think I’d be this pessimistic. There’s still o3 that hasn’t been seen in its full form, and whatever improvements are made to it now that multi head latent attention is out in the wild.
Orion does seem to have been a failure, but I also find it a bit weird that they seemingly decided to release the full model rather than a distillation, which is the pattern we now usually see with foundation models.
So, did they simply decide that it wasn’t worth the effort and dedicate the compute to other, better things? Were they pushed by sama to release it anyway, to look like they were still making progress while developing something really next gen?
OpenAI releases one dud and suddenly people come out of the woodwork to trash them.
I agree that OpenAI's endless hyping about AGI seems pretty unrealistic, but let's take a breather here. There are no major research projects where you don't run into setbacks and failures before you reach your goals.
And even if they never really progress beyond where they are today with their current models, just bringing down the cost could open up a lot of doors for useful applications.
Yep, GPT 4.5 is not a breakthrough, but there will be more breakthroughs.
Someone will figure out how to make AIs understand their own ignorance and stop bullshitting when they don't know something, someone will figure out how to make AIs learn on the fly instead of fine-tuning new model versions, etc.
Comments
I don’t think I’d be this pessimistic. There’s still o3 that hasn’t been seen in its full form, and whatever improvements are made to it now that multi head latent attention is out in the wild.
Orion does seem to have been a failure, but I also find it a bit weird that they seemingly decided to release the full model rather than a distillation, which is the pattern we now usually see with foundation models.
So, did they simply decide that it wasn’t worth the effort and dedicate the compute to other, better things? Were they pushed by sama to release it anyway, to look like they were still making progress while developing something really next gen?
OpenAI releases one dud and suddenly people come out of the woodwork to trash them.
I agree that OpenAI's endless hyping about AGI seems pretty unrealistic, but let's take a breather here. There are no major research projects where you don't run into setbacks and failures before you reach your goals.
And even if they never really progress beyond where they are today with their current models, just bringing down the cost could open up a lot of doors for useful applications.
Yep, GPT 4.5 is not a breakthrough, but there will be more breakthroughs.
Someone will figure out how to make AIs understand their own ignorance and stop bullshitting when they don't know something, someone will figure out how to make AIs learn on the fly instead of fine-tuning new model versions, etc.
OpenAI releases a variety of models and every time Gary Marcus comes out to trash them.