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Open AI has a brand, it has talent, it has some really solid models, and it has the compute to serve inference at scale. They stand as good a chance of covering their inference costs as anyone else.

The compute for training is beginning to seem a poor investment since it is depreciating fast and isn't producing value in this case. That's a seriously big investment to make if it's not productive but since a lot of it actually belongs to Azure they could cut back here fast if they had to. I hope they won't because in the hands of good researchers there is still a real possibility that they'll use the compute to find some kind of technical innovation to give them a bigger edge.

Open AI has a brand, it has talent, it has some really solid models, and it has the compute to serve inference at scale.

So does Google. And Google can roll out their premium models into phones, household devices, cars and online platforms to add value.

OpenAI has a website.

It's not even close.

OpenAI has a partnership with both Apple and Microsoft and I think this probably gives them enough access to be competitive with Google.

To serve their models on Azure and into phones. Co-Pilot is a joke. At least Google have rolled Gemini into Docs, Sheets, Android Studio, Gmail among other things.

Which is harder, to build a working AI, or to build a phone client? If OpenAI can do the former, it won't matter that Google is better at doing the latter.

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