It seems like most people are "certain" about the impact of high frequency trading on an a priori basis as well. If facts wouldn't be inconvenient, however, run a Google Scholar search on the impact of high frequency trading or look at Chris Stucchio's discourse on the matter [1].
Consider two markets, one with high-frequency and human market making and one with only human specialists against whom you trade. Run similar value-style strategies on both; if the former outperforms the latter portfolio you pay up $10 000 (or whatever number keeps this interesting for you), else I pay you.
Fact is you'd be silly to take that bet, as would I. We don't understand the impact of HFT enough for either of us to be "certain" of anything.
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>"I'm still certain that..."
It seems like most people are "certain" about the impact of high frequency trading on an a priori basis as well. If facts wouldn't be inconvenient, however, run a Google Scholar search on the impact of high frequency trading or look at Chris Stucchio's discourse on the matter [1].
Consider two markets, one with high-frequency and human market making and one with only human specialists against whom you trade. Run similar value-style strategies on both; if the former outperforms the latter portfolio you pay up $10 000 (or whatever number keeps this interesting for you), else I pay you.
Fact is you'd be silly to take that bet, as would I. We don't understand the impact of HFT enough for either of us to be "certain" of anything.
[1] http://www.chrisstucchio.com/blog/2012/hft_apology.html