Maybe you are right in predicting (guessing?) as to which is more likely. Still, we don’t have the luxury of just rank ordering failure modes and only mitigating the first.

Not to mention that the race for AI technology is likely going to make geopolitics more volatile. If something happens, it doesn’t matter how we bucketed it conceptually. Reality doesn’t care about where we draw the lines.

The false dichotomies abound in many of these discussions.