I tried Copilot and found the answer it gave was unsatisfying, the best para I can lift is "While gen AI can assist with generating code snippets, documentation, and automating certain tasks, it may not be as effective in solving complex, domain-specific problems that require deep understanding and critical thinking." all accurate but not really compelling to somebody who is under the spell of magic beans.
points out why 10x is a pipe dream with any technology. The core of the argument is that software development involves a number of steps, let's say
* requirements gathering
* systems support (build/dependencies/version control)
* software architecture
* user interface design
* database design
* coding
* testing
* documentation
* user training
* deployment
It's not too crazy to suggest that these all require a similar amount of work; so approximately each one of these is 10% of the work [1] If you had some breakthrough that reduced the coding time to zero, you've 1.1x timed your productivity, not 10x'ed. To 10x it you really have to 10x every one of those things!
[1] the argument wouldn't be too different if one of these was 30% of the work, and one certainly isn't
Comments
I would look at why you're outsourcing this thinking to HN instead of putting together data and an understanding of your own environment.
Or just ask the LLM's to write it for you.
I tried Copilot and found the answer it gave was unsatisfying, the best para I can lift is "While gen AI can assist with generating code snippets, documentation, and automating certain tasks, it may not be as effective in solving complex, domain-specific problems that require deep understanding and critical thinking." all accurate but not really compelling to somebody who is under the spell of magic beans.
This famous essay
https://worrydream.com/refs/Brooks_1986_-_No_Silver_Bullet.p...
points out why 10x is a pipe dream with any technology. The core of the argument is that software development involves a number of steps, let's say
It's not too crazy to suggest that these all require a similar amount of work; so approximately each one of these is 10% of the work [1] If you had some breakthrough that reduced the coding time to zero, you've 1.1x timed your productivity, not 10x'ed. To 10x it you really have to 10x every one of those things![1] the argument wouldn't be too different if one of these was 30% of the work, and one certainly isn't
ECEs have something called Amdahl's Law[1], which states something very similar.
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amdahl%27s_law
Free answer from HN: Don't believe the hype.